Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than expected as consumer spending is holding up ( www.cnbc.com )

Valdair OP , 10 months ago

One thing I haven't seen anyone discuss in the context of the current economic climate is that while we had near-0% effective rates from 2008 to 2022, we had sub-1% APRs on auto loans, sub-3% APRs on mortgages, and 0% APR payment plans through manufacturers and POS systems became common. Google, Apple, Amazon, Shopify, more, all implemented 0% APR payment options for devices and even general purchases for 6~12 month terms. I was looking at laptops just last week and notice Apple is still allowing 1 year 0% APR plans for them. The iPhone upgrade program doesn't seem to have gone anywhere. It seems to me this is probably still a pretty big driver of inflated consumer spending - it's objectively a better deal to not spend the money up front when the fed rate is 5.5%, money market funds are paying 5.4%, HYSAs are paying 5.1%, and inflation is 4%. Of course you should spend the money a year from now when it's grown more and worth less.

fresh , 10 months ago

It’s true that inflation presents an arbitrage opportunity, but I seriously doubt the average consumer is thinking with anything close to that level of sophistication. I mean, most consumers leave debt sitting on their credit card instead of paying it off when they can.