Edit: I used the 2nd calculator on this page to adjust for future inflation.
Thanks for the breakdown. I definitely look at retirement in a pessimistic light. Honestly I’d love feedback so let me know what you think. Here’s the assumptions I make:
I work 30 years and retire around 50, die around 85. Let’s also say I’m just starting to work and have those 30 yrs ahead of me to make the math easier. So 30 yrs work, 35 years retirement.
Inflation based off 2000-present, ~2%. That $30k becomes ~$54k at the beginning of retirement [bor], ~$108k at the end of life [eol].
Health insurance starts around $600/mo in my area so $1k/mo at bor, $1.46k/mo at 65 when Medicare kicks in. $54k -> $66k
I’d like to travel more. Currently my ideal trips cost $7k/person. With inflation becomes $12k bor. $66k -> $78k/yr bor.
I have had an up-close view of end-of-life for 4 close relatives. I’ve been a caregiver before and don’t wish that for my children. My bloodline is shit and if I live to 85 then I can optimistically guarantee at least 2 years of nursing home care and maybe 5 years of an in-home caregiver part time. Currently in my LCOL city nursing homes start at $70k/yr and in-home caregivers are ~$20/hr. Adjusting for inflation each year of nursing home is $243k. $20 for 8 hrs a day is $58.4k with inflation $184k on top of living expenses. I really just expect EOL to soak up any cash I have left.
There are things like I won’t have a mortgage, and savings will be minimal. I don’t take that into account though because I know 1) I will need more help maintaining my current house (I hope to pass the house to my children), 2) seeing how the economy is trending now I may want to help my children financially.