Usually the first paragraph is the lede, while the nut graf is the next paragraph or set of paragraphs.
For instance (the article I was referencing): here
The lede:
Twitter’s revenue from U.S. advertising in April was down 59% from the previous year, the New York Times reported Monday, after major advertisers left the social media platform following billionaire Elon Musk’s takeover—though Musk claimed two months ago the site was “breaking even.”
Nut graf:
Twitter made $88 million in U.S.-based advertising sales during a five week period starting April 1, down 59% from April 2022, the Times reported, citing an internal presentation and seven Twitter employees.
The social media company estimates its U.S. ad revenue will be down at least 56% each week in May, compared to last year, per the Times.
Twitter’s global ad revenue this year is estimated to be 28% lower than it was in 2022, at around $3 billion, according to research firm Insider Intelligence, as Twitter’s top 50 advertisers are spending markedly less since Musk took over the company in October.
I think either or would be acceptable in the body of the post, however I do believe that most users will post the lede over the nut graf just because it's the first paragraph and the most convenient.
EDIT
At least that's my interpretation of the difference between the two. You might be correct in that we're describing the same things, however I see a lot of articles structured like the linked article in Forbes. Seemingly where a lede and a nut graf are both present.