The difference being provable claims and speculation.
For example, I speculate that Biden appointed the french ambassador because she may have bought Hunter Biden's artwork.. But I can only speculate because I have no evidence to match my speculation.
I don't hate Trump, I even gave him the benefit of the doubt when he was first impeached. I sided with republicans and thought that was a bit out of character.
That being said. More evidence came out. One point doesn't draw a conclusion, but a bunch of dots start forming a line.
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
He did it, and I wish he hadn't, but he did. No one that is innocent that is as rich as Donald Trump gets that close to prison without screwing up majorly.