Oh that’s the fun part. Everyone discusses mean and median. Mode is in the 35-40 range last I tracked it down. (it wasn’t easy to find and I have my theories about why)
That doesn’t make any sense. The housing sales market is enormous. Much more than the amount of “upper crust” buyers. The rich aren’t buying them all, and the investment/landlord buyers can only afford them if the actual renters pay the bills which would not be the “upper crust” super wealthy. Therefore the statement that 99% can’t afford them must be false.
Imagine you have 10 people. 1 has $100, 2 have $50, and 7 have $20. Now imagine you have 10 stores selling pants. 1 store has a few pants for $50, and a bunch for $10. 1 store has a few pants for $80 and a bunch for $25. 8 have pants for $30, $25, and $10.
In this scenario, the median wealth is $20, and in all but one store the median price is $25. So in 90% of stores, the median pants cost more than the median amount a person can spend. BUT, all but one still have plenty of pants that cost less than the median. Given this, you wouldn’t say “90% of people can’t afford pants”.
You’re right. This is just an example to illustrate the statistics involved. At this point it doesn’t seem like you’re continuing this debate in good faith.
All I’m saying is it makes no sense. People keep buying houses which they couldn’t do if they were unaffordable. And it’s not just 1% that are using those houses. If those houses are bought by the 1% and rented to the 99% in order to pay the house off that means it is not unaffordable to the 99%.
You’re right, and that’s not what’s being claimed. It’s just saying that in 99% OF MARKETS, the median price exceeds the means of the median income. This isn’t really that surprising, actually. In a perfectly balanced market, you’d expect the median price to be exactly equal to the affordability of the median income, so about 50% of markets would be above this value, and 50% would be below it.
It’s probably also true that a far greater percentage of markets are affordable if you look at median income vs 45th percentile home cost, or 55th percentile income vs median home cost.
All this means is that if you make median income, you’ll probably need to buy a house that’s below median price.
It’s more than homes. Groceries have rocketed up in price. Cars are also unaffordable. Business people crowing about how great the (phantom) economy is are going to be leaping out of windows by next year. That’s when “the economy” will catch up to the fact that if no one can afford to buy anything then there is no economy.
I live on social security disability, about 1100$ a month.
A combo meal at McDonald’s is 12$.
2 combo meals a day from a fast food restaurant would completely wipe out my budget. No money for rent. No phone bill. No water or electric money. No money for garbage removal. The idea of a car is laughable. There wouldn’t even be enough for a bus pass.
It’s been a real struggle. After all the inflation hikes of 2022, they only raised my payments 50$ a month.
They simply don’t care about the people voting for them more than the companies bankrolling their campaigns that earn their paychecks. It’s that simple.
I’m in an average family earning average wages. Maintaining our standard of living is now at least $500 more a month, and that’s just from utilities, rent, and groceries (!). I’ve cancelled everything streaming aside from Youtube. We don’t eat out any longer, because that’s easily jumped at least $30 a meal for a family of four. Depending on your point of view, we were fortunate enough to have things we could cut back on that weren’t essentials.
I grew up fairly poor and by all metrics my family is better off, but it certainly doesn’t feel like it at times. I’ve had more month left at the end of my money more times than I’d care to admit.
I have no idea how those who were “just getting by” are continuing to do so.
Dang, sorry about all that. “More months left at the end of my money” really hits home for me, haven’t heard that expression before.
The only reason I’ve just been able to get by is because of friends and family, if I had any smaller of a safety net of people that care about me I would absolutely be on the streets. I’m not sure where you live, but the number of beggars has skyrocketed around me, and it’s not dirty crazy homeless people that just need help in general, it’s regular people out of work that are just trying to get money to pay their kids. People are selling 10$ roses on the sides of the highways to try to get by. There’s no affordable housing for anyone and the best jobs available still don’t pay much more than 50K a year. My boyfriend is a fully licensed mechanic and has about as much money leftover each month as a fast food worker in the '90s. Pays $1,400 in rent a month just to have a place to live (475sq ft), which is often nearly half of his income for the month.
I didn’t mental ramble so much with all those complaints, I think it’s just baffling in mind blowing how bad everything is and how little politicians and even companies seems to be noticing or caring about it. Citizens need money to give companies money. Eventually if people are only buying their necessities, companies won’t be able to make money. It just seems so unsustainable and I don’t know why more alarm bells aren’t being rang.
If it weren’t for my parents I couldn’t afford to live in this state as I live with them. Even as a homeowner, my mom is finding it hard to cope as homeowners insurance rates keep rising and the crisis is deepening as more insurers leave the state or stop offering new policies. I financed a used car back in 2022 for $8,500. I don’t think I’ll ever own a home here, not that I’d want to anyway, and as for cars I’m better off buying cheap and used.
Meanwhile, Florida’s Republican politicians plug their ears the moment anyone mentions the numerous threats Florida faces in the here and now from climate change. How dare anyone ask me to do anything about my state being overrun by the ocean and smothered by increasing hurricanes! Shameful!
Hawaii, 95 percent of our food is imports, the government is a colonial one, the megacorps own the entire islands land and industry, the military gets to do whatever the fuck it wants, Leech landlords raise rent, its a fucking shithole socioeconomically for anyone whos not inheriting blood money.
Well yeah, the average American is broke. And the average house is expensive. Give me whatever funding this study receives because this shit didn’t need one.
If I had to move to my current area now, my rent would be around 50% of my income, and that’s with a job that used to be able to support the whole nuclear family bullshit as little as 20 years ago. I’m like $2k below median family income by myself.
I don't really have any idea of owning a home for the rest of my life. Even making enough money to potentially get close seems impossibly out of reach.
First time home buyers in the US don’t need any cash for a down payment or closing costs. You can roll it all into the mortgage. This is how the majority of first time homebuyers get started. You just need a good credit score and enough income to qualify for the mortgage - which is impossible in some cities and easy on a McDonalds wage in others.
This situation has turned into a real cock for so many people.
The place I got my mortgage through sends out emails regularly with updates on my home value, current rates, and other assorted stuff. I originally bought this house at the tail end of 2020. It’s not the best house around, still needs work, but it had the room we needed, was in our budget (220), and the payment was low because the rate was great (2.75). Our original plan was stay here a bit, get rid of some debt, and then maybe try to find what we’d like to be our forever home, wherever that may be (we’re 44).
That idea went south in a hurry. What once probably wouldn’t have been worth sinking extra money into to fix, may now be the only choice. The aforementioned newsletter has a section where it shows what you could “save” at current rates by refinancing or taking cash out. The most recent one said I could “save” -$213400, meaning if we refinanced to take cash out to fix things up right now, it would cost us the entire price of the home yet again, on top of what the home and interest will already cost. Where a home in the 400’s was achievable before, our home in the 200s would nearly not be now.
I feel terrible for people having to try to achieve home ownership at this point, or probably for the rest of the decade. On the one hand, I understand how fortunate I am to have gotten in when I did, and to have a home period; on the other, like many, I’m now essentially trapped, which has the ripple effect of keeping both rates and prices high because most people aren’t going to trade a sub-3% mortgage for 7%+, assuming they can even find a place to go at this point.
Add in corporations branching out into a new area to do their level best to eliminate the concept of ownership for the majority of people, and politicians focusing on the more serious global issues like who goes in which bathroom, and my hope for the future couldn’t be squashed any further if you put it in a hydraulic press.
Real estate will crash, eventually. Hard to predict exactly when and why, but if history is any guide, a market crash eventually is practically inevitable. It could conceivably happen relatively quickly for any number of reasons, but crash it will.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it will become readily affordable - when real estate goes south, a lot of other stuff will be crashing with it. History books are full of monumental calamity. There’s no reason to expect that to change.
A more elegant solution would be to slap on a massive tax for houses that are not the primary homestead of the owner. Make it possible for companies to build and sell, but make it super expensive to sit on them or rent them out.
With houses being sold at 3x what they were just a few years ago in my area, it’s more profitable to leave half the houses empty than to sell them at a reasonable cost.
I could get on board with that, as long as you account for situations where you might have bought a second house and moved, while still trying to sell the first. Technically you would still own two houses and I’d hate to see individuals punished for merely trying to sell their old house.
This time is different. The new business model isn’t selling homes - it’s single family rental.
I coordinate all development projects in one of the fastest-growing cities in the county, and 100% of new single-family projects proposed since 2021 have been build-for-rent.
Why sell someone a house when you can rent it to them forever AND increase the price every year.
Practically all housing development is financed with borrowed money against the property. Given the build-to rent model, the party at the end of the cashflow stream relies on rent checks being paid every month to remain solvent. When the rents stop being collected, at some critical point, some loan that is reliant upon that rental stream will default. When that happens, the properties are called in by the borrower and auctioned off at foreclosure.
Now yes, the major lenders, developers and speculators will spread their risk as much as possible by diversifying their portfolios and try not to be caught short by a problem in any specific market. But when there is a some kind of macroeconomic shock, ALL the markets will suddenly contract and be flooded with foreclosed properties and other rapidly depreciating assets. That’s more-or-less what happened in 2007. Massive liquidity injections and historically low interest rates supposedly saved us from a prolonged financial catastrophe then - but there were still a LOT of foreclosures. I also think we are still seeing that situation playing out today. Current housing markets are unsustainable in a climate of higher interest rates. This will all come crashing down, probably sooner than most people expect. When it happens, it happens fast - and of course the reasons will seem obvious with hindsight.
I’m not saying a crash definitely won’t happen, but these BFR projects are a different beast than what we had in 2008. There are lots of reasons this isn’t as financially risky.
The biggest factor is how they’re being financed. They’re mostly doing public financing where the lender is the municipality and it’s paid back with extra taxes attached to the development agreement. The interest in these deals is usually 0%. The idea is that the government makes is money off of the tax money from the residents.
If the development falls through the government will just put a tax lien on the property for the past-due portion of the 25-year 0% deal that will be bought up cheap and fast by the next group.
Interesting. Thank you for the very enlightening info. So the local government is providing interest-free loans to developers for BFR projects, when prevailing rates are over 5 percent?
If the scope of BFR subsidization is as large as indicated then it’s probably buoying the housing market. A quick search found this glowing report on the BFR “boom”.
The housing market isn’t going to crash. New homes aren’t going to flood the market and demand for homes will not fall. As long as we have a growing population the price of homes will also increase.
Yes, there is finite supply and ever-growing demand, however the price of real estate ultimately reflects both the buyer and lender’s confidence that the mortgage payment will be met. This can be affected not only by interest rates but by labor market conditions and other factors.
If there is a sudden surge in interest rates in response to some kind of inflationary shock, or the credit market becomes suddenly much more restrictive in terms of lending standards, then housing prices will most certainly fall, simply because the pool of potential buyers at a given price level is smaller.
When pressures on the housing market are coupled with leveraged loans on variable rates going upside down, people will begin dumping their real estate investments. These factors compound to cause a sharp reduction in price. In 2007-8 metro home prices declined up to 50% from their earlier peaks - but seem to have increased about 200% since the bottom, roughly, to where they are today That’s quite a considerable appreciation and seems unlikely to be sustained. Maybe I’m wrong - we’re just shooting the shit on Lemmy - but looking at what’s happened before, real estate seems overheated - but it may well keep on boiling for all I know.
Hey are you me? We moved temporarily to a place with a far longer commute with the plan that we’d ride out the silliness of the market for about 5 years. That was in 2017. They’ll fucking bury me here lol.
We purchased right before ar the beginning of the rate increases. A 10 year ARM. Hoping the rates stabilize by that 10 year mark or things might get expensive for a few years.
Researchers examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner, who makes $71,214 a year, according to ATTOM.
This sounds like they compared the national mean income to local median home prices which honestly probably makes 99% too generous, it’s probably closer to 100% unless the article is explaining what they did poorly.
The lowest cost of living areas are going to be the ones where these houses are most affordable but they’re also lower income areas normally and a normal person isn’t pulling 71k a year in middle of nowhere Tennessee or whatever.
There should definitely be consequences for Greg Abbott. He should be charged with conspiracy and manslaughter at a minimum. He’s literally killing children for a political points now.
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